This study explores the benefits of incorporating fat-tailed innovations, asymmetric volatility response, and an extended information set into crude oil return modeling and forecasting. To this end, we utilize standard volatility models such as Generalized Autoregressive Conditional...

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The...

I have assessed changes in the monetary policy stance in the euro area since its inception by applying a Bayesian time-varying parameter framework in conjunction with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. I find that the estimated policy response has varied considerably over time. Most of the...

The Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) mutation model is considered using a Monte Carlo approach via Markov chains in the estimation of parameters, time-dependence variation is visually demonstrated. Fifteen indices were analyzed from the main financial markets of developed and...

Bayesian estimates from experimental data can be influenced by highly diffuse or "uninformative" priors. This paper discusses how practitioners can use their own expertise to critique and select a prior that (i) incorporates our knowledge as experts in the field, and (ii) achieves favorable...

This paper employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and uses posterior inclusion probability (PIP) values to evaluate which financial inclusion indicators, dimensions, and other determinants of income inequality should be considered in an empirical specification assessing the relationship between...

Conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on the future paths of some other variables, are used routinely by empirical macroeconomists in a number of applied settings. In spite of this, the existing algorithms used to generate conditional forecasts tend to be very...

This study conducts an empirical analysis of how the various financial assets in South Korea (stock, bond, exchange rates, Bitcoin, Koribor, gold, and oil) react during the COVID-19 pandemic period using the Bayesian network approach. We consider various asset types together, especially...