Search Results - subject:"bayesian learning"

Half empty, half full and the possibility of agreeing to disagree

Zimper, Alexander - Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) - 2007

Aumann (1976) derives his famous we cannot agree to disagree result under the assumption of rational Bayesian learning …, biased Bayesian learning within the framework of Choquet expected utility theory. As a key feature of our approach the … people may well agree to disagree if their Bayesian learning is psychologically biased in our sense. Remarkably, this finding …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008594436

Le rôle des croyances et des idéologies dans l'économie politique des réformes

Saint-Paul, Gilles - In: Revue d'économie politique 117 (2007) 4, pp. 577-592

In this paper, we try to understand the persistence of potentially biased beliefs, with an emphasis on beliefs that are potentially biased against the market economy. We highlight two mechanisms. First, some interest groups may have an interest in manipulating beliefs in a given direction,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008680222

Learning, structural instability and present value calculations

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; … - 2006

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276173

Learning, structural instability and present value calculations

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; … - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295816

When Advance Purchase need to be Made for Future Consumption – An Empirical Investigation of Consumer Choice under Bucket Pricing

Sun, Bao-Hong; Sun, Yacheng; Li, Shibo - 2006

Bucket pricing entails a prepaid price and a maximum consumption limit, which requires consumers to make advance purchase decisions before their consumption needs are fully revealed. We propose a dynamic model that involves how consumers form expectations of future consumption needs, learn to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009441184

Inflation dynamics and regime shifts

Lendvai, Julia - 2006

observe the regime and use a Bayesian learning rule to make optimal inferences. Price setting is adapted to this environment …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604730

Inflation dynamics and regime shifts

Lendvai, Julia - European Central Bank - 2006

observe the regime and use a Bayesian learning rule to make optimal inferences. Price setting is adapted to this environment …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530675

Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations

Pesaran, Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan - Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR), … - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537350

Learning, structural instability and present value calculations

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Pettenuzzo, Davide; … - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083172

Efficient Dynamic Auctions

Bergemann, Dirk; Valimaki, Juuso - Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University - 2006

We consider the truthful implementation of the socially efficient allocation in a dynamic private value environment in which agents receive private information over time. We show that a suitable generalization of the Vickrey-Clark-Groves mechanism, based on the marginal contribution of each...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005593293