The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could conceivably be refuted by observation. For a (non-expanding) universe infinite in time but finite at any point of time, it is shown that by a suitable choice of priors, any...

The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could conceivably be refuted by observation. For a (non-expanding) universe infinite in time but finite at any point of time, it is shown that by a suitable choice of priors, any...

The plea bargaining procedure, namely the viability of a stage of bargaining between prosecutor and defendant in criminal suits, is analyzed in the framework of a two-sided incomplete information game. It is shown that, for a given parameter configuration, there exists a Bayesian equilibrium...

Individuals' perception of their own road-traffic and overall mortality risks are examined in this paper. Perceived risk is compared with the objective risk of the respondents' peers, i.e. their own gender and age group, and the results suggest that individuals' risk perception of their own risk...

It is widely accepted in social psychology that the need to maintain and enhance self-esteem is a fundamental human motive. We incorporate this factor into an otherwise ordinary principal-agent framework and examine its impact on the optimal incentive scheme and the agent's behavior, especially...

This paper considers the decision problem of a firm that is uncertain about the demand, and hence profitability, of a new product. We develop a model of a decision maker who sequentially learns about the true product profitability from observed product sales. Based on the current information,...

This paper examines the stability of deterministic steady-states in a class of economies where the state -variable is one dimensional and where agents use Bayesian techniques to form expectations. Thr dynamics with learning are locally convergent if the prior mean is close to a stable perfect...

This paper proposes a new test to distinguish between the two leading theories of discrimination: preference versus information. Discrimination based on preferences occurs when people behave as if they refuse to change their stereotypes about the capabilities of discriminated individuals. Those...

This comment considers the applicability of the Cyert and DeGroot model of adaptive utility in modeling consumer choice behavior with respect to arts goods. An illustration of the consumer’s choice behavior on expenditure shares is simulated as a simple Markov chain. This is followed by a...