This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets and Wouters (2012), estimated on euro area data. It investigates the extent to which the inclusion of forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve...

This paper studies an alternative quasi likelihood approach under possible model misspecification. We derive a filtered likelihood from a given quasi likelihood (QL), called a limited information quasi likelihood (LI-QL), that contains relevant but limited information on the data generation...

Practically all organizations seek to create value by selecting and executing portfolios of actions that consume resources. Typically, the resulting value is uncertain, and thus organizations must take decisions based on ex ante estimates about what this future value will be. In this paper, we...

A flexible Bayesian approach to a generalized linear model is proposed to describe the dependence of binary data on explanatory variables. The inverse of the exponential power cumulative distribution function is used as the link to the binary regression model. The exponential power family...

Despite the growing literature, central bank independence (CBI) is still one of the most controversial and frequently discussed issues in macroeconomics. This paper re-examines the role of central bank independence in macroeconomic outcomes, seeking to add to the existing empirical literature in...

This paper examines the monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro area (EA) for the period of single monetary policy using factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) techniques. The aims of the paper are threefold. First, a novel dataset consisting of 120 disaggregated macroeconomic time...

This paper contributes to the debate on the decoupling of emerging economies (EEs) from advanced economies (AEs), by measuring how the resilience of EEs to external shocks (i.e. shocks spreading from AEs) has changed over time and whether EEs are relatively more vulnerable to real or financial...

We construct and estimate a model that features endogenous growth and technology diffusion. The spillover effects from research and development provide a link between business cycle fluctuations and long-term growth. Therefore, productivity growth is related to the state of the economy. Shocks...

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of multilateral adjustment to U.S. external imbalances in driving bilateral real exchange rate movements by developing a new regime-switching model that consists of a Markov-switching model with a time-varying transition matrix that depends on a...