In this paper we propose a strategy for forecasting the term structure of interest rates which may produce significant gains in predictive accuracy. The key idea is to use the restrictions implied by Affine Term Structure Models (ATSM) on a vector autoregression (VAR) as prior information rather...

This paper sets up and estimates a structural model of Australia as a small open economy using Bayesian techniques. Unlike other recent studies, the paper shows that a small micro-founded model can capture the open economy dimensions quite well. Specifically, the model attributes a substantial...

This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring U.S. recessions in the presence of instabilities. We propose several specifications of a probit model for classifying phases of the business cycle. We find strong evidence in favor of the ones that allow for the...

In this paper I compare the calibration technique with the Bayesian approach in the context of econometric methods of estimating structural models. I use the real business cycles model to apply both techniques. The model is calibrated and estimated for Romanian economy using quarterly data. I...

The valuation of non-market goods involves iterated elicitation questions which obtain more information from the sample respondents and lead to more efficient welfare estimates. In this paper we consider the improvements which could be obtained by utilising a Bayesian MCMC approach to model this...

WinBUGS is a program for Bayesian model fitting by Gibbs sampling. WinBUGS has limited facilities for data handling, whereas Stata has no routines for Bayesian analysis; therefore, much can be gained by running Stata and WinBUGS together. We present a set of ado-files that enable data to be...

We approach the social choice problem as one of optimal statistical inference. If individual voters or judges observe the true order ona set of alternatives with error, then it is possible to use the set of individual rankings to make probability statements about the correct social order. Given...