Search Results - subject:"bayesian model averaging"

Leading indicators of crisis incidence: evidence from developed countries

Babecký, Jan; Havránek, Tomáš; Matějů, Jakub; … - 2012

vector autoregression. Second, we identify the most useful leading indicators with Bayesian model averaging. Our results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605531

Combination schemes for turning point predictions

Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - Norges Bank - 2012

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010835414

Do determinants of FDI to developing countries differ among OECD investors? Insights from Bayesian model averaging

Antonakakis, Nikolaos; Tondl, Gabriele - Institute for European Integration, Europa-Kolleg - 2012

examine them all simultaneously employing Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) in a panel data set with 129 FDI destinations in 5 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647158

The Determinants of Vulnerability to the Global Financial Crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit Growth and Other Sources of Risk

Feldkircher, Martin - Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos, Suomen Pankki - 2012

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010586132

Stock Markets and Growth: A Re-Evaluation

DeHan, Chase Parker - Department of Economics, University of Utah - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010596324

A Comprehensive Look at Financial Volatility Prediction by Economic Variables

Christiansen, Charlotte; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas - Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - 2012

-rich forecast methodology to handle a large set of potential predictors in a Bayesian Model Averaging approach, and, second, we take …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010539590

Does Trust Promote Growth?

Horváth, Roman - Institut ekonomických studií, Univerzita Karlova v Praze - 2012

model averaging to deal rigorously with model uncertainty and attendant omitted variable bias. In addition, we address …We examine the effect of generalized trust on long-term economic growth. Unlike in previous studies, we use Bayesian …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010541452

Do Political Institutions Yield Multiple Growth Regimes?

Coyne, David; Tan, Chih Ming - Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA) - 2012

to account for theory uncertainty by applying Bayesian model averaging in the threshold regression context. We find that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010552632

Does Trust Promote Growth?

Horváth, Roman - Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (IOS) - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010561159

Changes in Inflation Dynamics under Inflation Targeting? Evidence from Central European Countries

Baxa, Jaromir; Plasil, Miroslav; Vasicek, Borek - Česká Národní Banka - 2012

The purpose of this paper is to provide a novel look at the evolution of inflation dynamics in selected Central European (CE) countries. We use the lens of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) nested within a time-varying framework. Exploiting a time-varying regression model with stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010562182