The economy of Pakistan has been facing instability and downward trends due to several factors, such as rising foreign debt and goods and services prices. The regression and ARDL models are applied by using R software. Adding lag values of variables become necessary to measure the long-run...

Biased responses in survey studies could seriously harm and mislead our economic decision-making. To mitigate survey response bias, we suggest an alternative way of combining two existing strategies, cheap talk and the Bayesian Truth Serum (BTS). In our three proof-of-concept experiments, we...

We study a hierarchical Bayesian persuasion game with a sender, a receiver, and several potential intermediaries, generalizing the framework of Kamenica and Gentzkow (2011). The sender must be persuasive through a hierarchy of intermediaries to reach the final receiver, whose action affects all...

We propose a mixed‑frequency regression prediction approach that models a time‑varying trend, stochastic volatility and fat tails in the variable of interest. The coefficients of high‑frequency indicators are regularised via a shrinkage prior that accounts for the grouping structure and...

The paper solves the optimal sampling problem of a decision-maker that wants to predict a target variable. We prove the existence of complementarities between the sample size and the number of explanatory variables in a data set. We show that the optimal dimensions of the data set reflect the...

How do you make inferences from a Bayesian network (BN) model with missing information? For example, we may not have priors for some variables or may not have conditionals for some states of the parent variables. It is well-known that the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) belief function theory is a...