We examine how financial crises redistribute risk, employing novel empirical methods and micro data from the largest financial crisis of the 20th century – the Great Depression. Using balance-sheet and systemic risk measures at the bank level, we build an econometric model with incidental...

In spatio-temporal epidemiological analysis, it is of critical importance to identify the significant covariates and estimate the associated time-varying effects on the health outcome. Due to the heterogeneity of spatio-temporal data, the subsets of important covariates may vary across space and...

Little is known about how gamblers estimate probabilities from multiple information sources. This paper reports on a preregistered study that administered an incentivized Bayesian choice task to n=465 participants (self-reported gamblers and non-gamblers). Our data failed to support our main...

A sender is seeking approval from the receiver(s). He conducts experiments to two receivers with identical preferences sequentially. The first receiver can approve, reject, or delay the decision to the next receiver while the second receiver must approve or reject. Upon delay, the first receiver...

Mixed models are classical tools in statistics for modeling repeated data on subjects, such as data on patients, customers or firms collected over time. These models extend conventional linear models to include latent parameters, called random effects, that capture between-subject variation and...

Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...