We revisit the economic models of social learning by assuming that individuals update their beliefs in a non-Bayesian way. Individuals either overweigh or underweigh (in Bayesian terms) their private information relative to the public information revealed by the decisions of others and each...

We present a model in which investors observe the same macroeconomic data but have varying levels of information about the parameters that determine the distribution of the expected returns on investment. During a crisis that increases macroeconomic uncertainty and reduces asset prices, the...

Agricultural yields depend on an encompassing set of technical and environmental factors. The development of such factors often is not fully observable, and their interactions and impacts on yields have not been completely understood. This paper proposes a Bayesian method for forming...

Agricultural yields depend on an encompassing set of technical and environmental factors. The development of such factors often is not fully observable, and their interactions and impacts on yields have not been completely understood. This paper proposes a Bayesian method for forming...

We analyze a model of a dynamic political competition between two policy-motivated parties under uncertainty. The model suggests that electoral mandates matter: increasing the margin of victory in the previous election causes both parties to shift towards policies preferred by the winner, and...