Search Results - subject:"belief updating"

Aina, Chiara; Schneider, Florian H. - 2025

We study how individuals update their beliefs in the presence of competing data-generating processes, or models, that could explain observed data. Through experiments, we identify the weights participants assign to different models and find that the most common updating rule gives full weight to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015398906

Pricing in response to new information : the case of betting markets

Fischer, Kai; Schmal, Wolfgang Benedikt - 2025

Markets are information aggregators. But how do they incorporate new data into their pricing? We examine the response of prediction markets to a novel information shock in a quasi-natural experiment: How did the absence announcements of elite soccer players influence the betting odds of affected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015398315

Weighting competing models

Aina, Chiara; Schneider, Florian - 2025

We study how individuals update their beliefs in the presence of competing datagenerating processes, or models, that could explain observed data. Through experiments, we identify the weights participants assign to different models and find that the most common updating rule gives full weight to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015329871

Weighting competing models

Aina, Chiara; Schneider, Florian - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015361386

Belief updating about moral norms: does group identity matter?

Dickinson, David L.; Villeval, Marie-Claire - 2025

We investigate how group identity affects belief updating about moral norms. Using a Belief Updating task, we found … that individuals follow a cautious version of Bayesian updating. Group identity itself does not directly affect belief … updating. However, when given an information signal about the truthfulness of a normative statement that is dissonant with one …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015402628

Belief updating about moral norms : does group identity matter?

Dickinson, David L.; Villeval, Marie-Claire - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015402754

Weighting competing models

Aina, Chiara; Schneider, Florian - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015333403

Beliefs about demographic change: How well are individuals informed?

Stumpf, Elisa; Schuetz, Jana; Übelmesser, Silke; … - 2024

Demographic change is one of Germany's most pressing social and economic challenges. Using data from a representative telephone survey, we analyze how well informed respondents are about the magnitude of demographic change and what factors influence the accuracy of their beliefs. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014471679

Fake news: Susceptibility, awareness and solutions

Assenza, Tiziana; Cardaci, Alberto; Huber, Stefanie J. - 2024

This paper investigates and quantifies citizens' susceptibility to fake news and assesses, using a randomized control trial, the effectiveness of a policy intervention to raise awareness. We find that the average citizen lacks proficiency in identifying fake news and harbors an inflated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014525236

Mixed‐effects regression weights for advice taking and related phenomena of information sampling and utilization

Rebholz, Tobias R.; Biella, Marco; Hütter, Mandy - In: Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 37 (2024) 2

-effects regression weights can also inform research on related cognitive phenomena such as multidimensional belief updating, anchoring …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014525540

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