Harding, Don; Pagan, Adrian - National Centre for Econometric Research (NCER) - 2009
the business cycle and the yield spread.
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Key Words: Business cycle; binary variable, Markov process, Pro-
bit model …), Startz(2008) and Harding and Pagan (2006).
The binary variable we will work with can be thought of as representing
the state … designate it as St: As
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an example data on economic activity can be used to construct a binary
variable St; taking the value …