To characterize ambiguity we use machine learning to impose guidance and discipline on the formulation of expectations in a data-rich environment. In addition, we use the bootstrap to generate plausible synthetic samples of data not seen in historical real data to create statistics of interest...

This paper considers a semiparametric threshold regression model with two threshold variables,extending Chen et al. (2012) and Kourtellos et al. (2021). The proposed model allows the endogeneity for both threshold variables and the slope regressors. Under the diminishing thresholdeffects...

Both Kosowski et al. (2006) and Fama and French (2010) evaluate whether mutual funds outperform, but their conclusions are very different. We reconcile their findings. We show that the Fama and French method suffers from an undersampling problem that leads to a failure to reject the null...

This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic standard errors of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions for stable VAR models by means of the d-method. These standard errors can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated...