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Year of publication
Subject
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Bayesian inference 1 break forecasting 1 change-point 1 differential evolution 1 marginal likelihood 1 recurrent states 1 structural breaks 1
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Online availability
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Free 1
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 1
Language
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Undetermined 1
Author
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BAUWENS, Luc 1 DE BACKER, Bruno 1 DUFAYS, Arnaud 1
Institution
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Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), École des Sciences Économiques de Louvain 1
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CORE Discussion Papers 1
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RePEc 1
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Estimating and forecasting structural breaks in financial time series
BAUWENS, Luc; DUFAYS, Arnaud; DE BACKER, Bruno - Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), … - 2011
We present an algorithm, based on a differential evolution MCMC method, for Bayesian inference in AR-GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks at unknown dates. Break dates are directly treated as parameters and the number of breaks is determined by the marginal likelihood...
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