We test whether three well-known commodity-specific variables (basis, hedgingpressure, and momentum) may improve the predictive power for commodity futuresreturns of models otherwise based on macroeconomic factors. We compute recursive,out-of-sample forecasts for fifteen monthly commodity...

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-incomecountries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sectorstress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements inprimary commodities a key role in...

We investigate mean and volatility spillovers between the crude oil market and the main biofuel feedstock markets (corn, soybean, and sugar). In doing so, we estimate a four-variable vector error correction (VEC) GARCH-in-Mean model with a BEKK representation for the variance equation, and also...

Emerging market economies(EMEs), particularly the commodity exporterones,are exposed to world's dynamics through different channels. In this paper,we consider the role of (exogenous) commodity prices shocks in explaining business cycles in EMEs,by proposing a financial transmission mechanism:...

The interconnected issues of commodity price fluctuation, unemployment and balance of trade developments are of critical importance in times of globalization. The present paper addresses these issues in terms of a monetary dependent economy macro model that applies to a large class of emerging...

We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity...

China's agricultural support policies are moving towards market institutions through a quasi‐market transition. Ten years of direct minimum purchase price procurement on agricultural commodities resulted in overcapacity, oversupply, mixed‐market signals and grey‐market imports. The...

In this paper, we study commodity pricing, commodity price volatility and predictability. Our emphasis is on the econometric identification of market expectations about the convenience yield and of discount rates dynamics. To explain commodity prices and return volatility, we consider both a...

We examine two key channels through which commodity price super-cycles affect the economy. Higher commodity prices increase domestic demand (wealth channel), disproportionately benefiting nonexporters, and induce wage increases (cost channel) especially among unskilled workers, hurting...

In many historical episodes, the extent of criminal activity has displayed booms and busts. One very clear example is the case of metal crime, where in the face of big increases in value driven by world commodity prices, the incidence of metal thefts in the UK (and elsewhere) rose very sharply...