This paper investigates whether the commodities market in India follows the random walk process and whether they deviate from the random walk theory (mean reversion). Daily log returns of the commodity future index (MCXCOMDEX) and three sectoral indices are examined using the Augmented...

On the 30th anniversary of the seminal article by Pindyck (1993), we re-evaluate the evidence for the classical rational model of commodity prices, extending it to admit time- varying discount rates, investors’ heterogeneity or both. Discount factors specifications are flexible enough to allow...

This paper analyzes the impact of commodity price shocks and global supply chain disruptions on U.S. inflation. Since the inflationary effect of particular commodities is time-varying, our main contribution is to construct a Cost-Push Commodity factor through a genetic algorithm which...

This study utilizes a frequency domain approach to decompose the prices of 21 primary commodities into transitory, supercycle, and permanent components from 1900 to 2022. The results reveal the presence of four heterogenous supercycles, with an average duration of 25 years, contributing little...

In this study, we analyze the seasonal behaviour of Indian agriculture, energy and metal commodities through the ten years preceding Super-cycle (2003-13) by considering monthly data for near-month futures prices to remove basis variance. The paper aims to investigate the seasonal behaviour of...

This paper studies commodity price cycles and their underlying drivers using a dynamic factor model. The study employs a sample of 39 monthly commodity prices over 1970:01 to 2019:12. The analysis identifies global and group-specific cycles in commodity markets and includes them in a structural...

Almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies rely heavily on resource sectors for economic activity, fiscal and export revenues. In these economies, economic planning requires sound baseline projections for the global prices of the commodities they rely on and a sense of the...