The credit-to-GDP gap is a fundamental indicator used to identify credit bubbles. Currently, the indicator takes into account aggregate credit as a ratio of GDP, without distinguishing between local and foreign currency. In the Albanian financial system, foreign currency loans comprise about...

Purpose: This study is focused on integrating a strategic perspective for bottleneck selection and exploitation according to the DBR methodology. The researchers developed a systematic process of four steps for the implementation of the first two steps of TOC-DBR in Make-to-Order production...

Agricultural commodity markets in developing countries are characterized by high transaction costs and risks that reduce trade flows among spatial markets. We examine whether institutionalized agricultural commodity exchange markets reduce transaction costs and hence spatial price dispersion...

We apply variance analysis for studying the risk-sharing mechanism in distribution channels, in which the risk-averse buyer and supplier are suffered from commodity price shocks. We obtain the closed-form optimal pass-through rate that minimizes the total channel risk and maximizes the channel...

This paper explores the extent to which commodity prices can predict GDP growth rates of various countries using indices of 27 commonly traded commodity futures. Commodity returns can strongly predict the next quarter's GDP growth, while the basis shows a reasonable level of predictive power....

The paper studies the return-volatility relationship in a range of commodities. We develop a commodity price model and show that the volatility of price changes can be positively or negatively related to demand shocks. An “inverse leverage effect” – the volatility is higher following...

We develop a two-factor mean-reverting stochastic model for forecasting storable commodity prices and valuing commodity derivatives. We define a variable called normalized excess supply based on the observable production rate, consumption rate, and inventory levels of the commodity. Our analysis...

The objective of this study is to explore the impact of commodity price volatility on the governments' fiscal balance. Using a dynamic panel data model for 108 countries from 1993 to 2018, this study finds that governments' fiscal balance deteriorates with commodity price volatility. A one...