We study the effect of a domestic shock in China on the real economy and financial markets of a commodity exporting country. We estimate a dynamic factor model using Bayesian methods to identify a China factor and a global factor using monthly macroeconomic data from China and rest of the world....

We analyze the optimal insurance demand in a dynamic setup with two periods. In addition to the possibility to insure, the investor is allowed to transfer wealth between the two periods, i.e. she can save. While it is difficult to interpret the optimal saving and insurance decisions without...

Commodity prices are an important driver of fiscal policy and the business cycle in many developing and emerging market economies. We analyze a dynamic stochastic small-open-economy model of sovereign default, featuring endogenous fiscal policy and stochastic commodity revenues. The model...

In this paper we aim at empirically testing cross-country impacts of commodity price shocks to aggregate TFP growth for a sample of emerging economies. Under a growth accounting framework, we estimate country-specific TFP growth (1992-2014) and select the attendant robust determinants by means...

Policy prescriptions for managing natural resource windfalls are based on the permanent income hypothesis: none of the windfall is invested at home and saving in an intergenerational SWF is dictated by smoothing consumption across different generations. Furthermore, with Dutch disease effects...

In this paper I analyze the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933, an almost forgotten episode in U.S. monetary history. I study how the Conference shaped dollar policy during the second half of 1933 and early 1934. I use daily data to investigate the way in which the Conference and...

Commodity price shocks have, over the years, posed major challenges for the conduct of monetary policy and economic management in Nigeria. Several studies dedicated to investigating these phenomena had focused only on oil price (Nigeria's major commodity) with little or no attention to food...

We build a New Keynesian business-cycle model with rich household heterogeneity. A central feature is that matching frictions render labor-market risk countercyclical and endogenous to monetary policy. Our main result is that a majority of households prefer substantial stabilization of...

This paper argues that the effects of the food price crisis of 2007–08 put pressure on two variables that are of central importance to the Brazilian government: inflation and social inclusion. We describe how political institutions in Brazil in the past 25 years have given rise to a...

In this paper we extract latent factors from a large cross-section of commodity prices, including fuel and non-fuel commodities. We decompose each commodity price series into a global (or common) component, block-specific components and a purely idiosyncratic shock. We find that the bulk of the...