I examine the effect of exogenous terms of trade shocks on an exchange rate by turning to New Zealand's dairy auctions. Dairy is New Zealand's largest export category, making up almost 20 percent of exports. Specifically, whole milk powder accounts for 6 to 11 percent of total exports, and its...

Using detailed micro-data, this paper documents that households with lower income risk (and higher income levels) exhibit a higher Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) in response to transitory income shocks, all else being equal. This finding is particularly significant among unconstrained...

This paper investigates firms’ use of precautionary savings to manage the risk of distress spillovers from supply chain partners. Firms increase cash holdings when their principal customers have a larger fraction of long-term debt maturing in one year. Analysis exploiting predetermined...

This paper investigates whether the commodities market in India follows the random walk process and whether they deviate from the random walk theory (mean reversion). Daily log returns of the commodity future index (MCXCOMDEX) and three sectoral indices are examined using the Augmented...

On the 30th anniversary of the seminal article by Pindyck (1993), we re-evaluate the evidence for the classical rational model of commodity prices, extending it to admit time- varying discount rates, investors’ heterogeneity or both. Discount factors specifications are flexible enough to allow...

This paper analyzes the impact of commodity price shocks and global supply chain disruptions on U.S. inflation. Since the inflationary effect of particular commodities is time-varying, our main contribution is to construct a Cost-Push Commodity factor through a genetic algorithm which...

This study utilizes a frequency domain approach to decompose the prices of 21 primary commodities into transitory, supercycle, and permanent components from 1900 to 2022. The results reveal the presence of four heterogenous supercycles, with an average duration of 25 years, contributing little...