Emerging market economies(EMEs), particularly the commodity exporterones,are exposed to world's dynamics through different channels. In this paper,we consider the role of (exogenous) commodity prices shocks in explaining business cycles in EMEs,by proposing a financial transmission mechanism:...

The interconnected issues of commodity price fluctuation, unemployment and balance of trade developments are of critical importance in times of globalization. The present paper addresses these issues in terms of a monetary dependent economy macro model that applies to a large class of emerging...

We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity...

China's agricultural support policies are moving towards market institutions through a quasi‐market transition. Ten years of direct minimum purchase price procurement on agricultural commodities resulted in overcapacity, oversupply, mixed‐market signals and grey‐market imports. The...

In this paper, we study commodity pricing, commodity price volatility and predictability. Our emphasis is on the econometric identification of market expectations about the convenience yield and of discount rates dynamics. To explain commodity prices and return volatility, we consider both a...

We examine two key channels through which commodity price super-cycles affect the economy. Higher commodity prices increase domestic demand (wealth channel), disproportionately benefiting nonexporters, and induce wage increases (cost channel) especially among unskilled workers, hurting...

In many historical episodes, the extent of criminal activity has displayed booms and busts. One very clear example is the case of metal crime, where in the face of big increases in value driven by world commodity prices, the incidence of metal thefts in the UK (and elsewhere) rose very sharply...

We characterize the optimal linear tax on capital in an Overlapping Generations model with two period lived households facing uninsurable idiosyncratic labor income risk. The Ramsey government internalizes the general equilibrium feedback of private precautionary saving. For logarithmic utility...

I introduce commodities and countries' different commodity trade structures into an otherwise standard two-country model to analyze international business cycles between the U.S. and commodity-exporting countries. In the model, only the foreign country (the commodity-exporting country) produces...

We extend Jurado et al. (2015)'s forecast-error-based uncertainty measure to the international context, and construct a new measure of global uncertainty. We examine dynamic causal effects among global uncertainty and other global macroeconomic variables, and provide two important applications...