In this paper we compare, in a fully consistent manner, micro and macro labor supply elasticities. The individual elasticity is obtained from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). The aggregate, time-series, elasticity is estimated from the aggregation of individual units in the PSID for...

The last few years have seen an explosion of Dynamic and Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models built for policy analysis and forecasting in industrialized countries. The set of papers presented to the recent joint U.S. Federal Reserve Board-European Central Bank-IMF conference: "DSGE...

Despite the common reliance on numerical probability estimates in decision research and decision analysis, there is considerable interest in the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate opinion. A method is proposed for obtaining and quantitatively evaluating verbal judgments in...

This paper reviews several of the current controversies in the relative value of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods. Where expert, informed judgemental forecasts are being used, a critical analysis of the evidence suggests that their quality is higher than many researchers have...