This paper develops a novel method for policy choice in a dynamic setting where the available data is a multi-variate time-series. Building on the statistical treatment choice framework, we propose Time-series Empirical Welfare Maximization (T-EWM) methods to estimate an optimal policy rule for...

Abstract Mediation analysis has been used in many disciplines to explain the mechanism or process that underlies an observed relationship between an exposure variable and an outcome variable via the inclusion of mediators. Decompositions of the total effect (TE) of an exposure variable into...

Abstract Analysts often use data-driven approaches to supplement their knowledge when selecting covariates for effect estimation. Multiple variable selection procedures for causal effect estimation have been devised in recent years, but additional developments are still required to adequately...

Abstract Causal mediation analysis is complicated with multiple effect definitions that require different sets of assumptions for identification. This article provides a systematic explanation of such assumptions. We define five potential outcome types whose means are involved in various effect...

Abstract Instrumental variables allow for quantification of cause and effect relationships even in the absence of interventions. To achieve this, a number of causal assumptions must be met, the most important of which is the independence assumption, which states that the instrument and any...

Abstract In the presence of heterogeneity between the randomized controlled trial (RCT) participants and the target population, evaluating the treatment effect solely based on the RCT often leads to biased quantification of the real-world treatment effect. To address the problem of lack of...

Abstract I thank Ilya Shpitser for his comments on my article, and discuss the use of models with restricted interventions.