This paper investigates market expectations of future equity prices using the probability distribution and the moments implied in equity option prices. We first conduct, without assuming a particular model, a nonparametric analysis of the development of market expectations in four major markets...

A general estimation approach combining the attractive features of method of moments with the efficiency of ML is proposed. The moment conditions are computed via the characteristic function. The two major difficulties with the implementation is that one needs to use an infinite set of moment...