This article presents an extension of the cohort component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP that greatly facilitates...

Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed. We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series...