This papers develops a dynamic factor models with regime switching to account for the decreasing volatility of the U.S. economy observed since the mid-1980s. Apart from the Markov switching capturing the cyclical fluctuations, an additional type of regime switching is introduced to allow...

This paper studies the business cycle features of the transportation sector using dynamic factor models. The transportation reference cycles peak ahead of the economic cycles, but lag by a few months at troughs. The asymmetric relationship between these two suggests the usefulness of...

Using a state space formulation developed by Stock and Watson and Garratt and Hall we construct an indicator, which then is interpreted as a measure of the underlying economic activity of the Greek economy. The chief novelty of the paper is that the underlying model is calibrated, rather than...

Removal of short-run dynamics from a stationary time series to isolate the medium to long-run component, can be obtained by a band-pass filter. However, band pass filters are infinite moving averages and can therefore deteriorate at the end of the sample. This is a well-known result in the...