The combination of experts' probability distributions involved in a due diligence is valuable for encapsulating the accumulated information for decision makers and providing the current state of expert opinion regarding important uncertainties. Therefore, this paper shows how to create and...

The combination of experts' probability distributions involved in a due diligence is valuable for encapsulating the accumulated information for decision makers and providing the current state of expert opinion regarding important uncertainties. Therefore, this paper shows how to create and...

In this paper, probabilities of survival assessed by physicians for patients admitted to an intensive care unit are studied. The probabilities from each of four types of physicians are evaluated on an overall basis and in terms of specific attributes, and the groups are compared. The physicians...

When two forecasters agree regarding the probability of an uncertain event, should a decision maker adopt that probability as his or her own? A decision maker who does so is said to act in accord with the unanimity principle. We examine a variety of Bayesian consensus models with respect to...