Cashin, Paul; McDermott, C. John - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2001
Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the … behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward … trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent per year over the last 140 years, little support is found for a break in the …