Tunisia’s macroeconomic situation has recovered from the post-revolution trough, but fiscal and external buffers have been eroded. Prudent management of monetary policy is crucial for short-term macroeconomic stabilization goals and to build external buffers. The challenges arise from...

This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be...

The Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation found the macroeconomic performance of the Central African Republic (CAR) satisfactory despite its below-average growth compared with other countries of the region. The report has identified lack of resources, institutional frailties,...

The Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement with Ireland highlights that Ireland’s policy implementation has continued to be steadfast. Ownership of the program remains strong despite the considerable challenges the country is facing. Ireland’s progress in strengthening the...

The Swaziland economy continues to underperform, reflecting the impact of the global economic crisis. The impact of the crisis has been felt mostly in revenue transfers of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) to Swaziland. Executive Directors welcomed Fiscal Adjustment Roadmap (FAR), which...

Afghanistan has made important achievements in recent years. The 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that authorities have taken steps to lay the foundation for economic stability and growth, despite a very difficult security situation and the challenges associated with building political...

Serbia’s Second Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and requests for Waiver of Performance Criterion are examined. The contraction in GDP has been limited relative to regional comparators, but absorption and external trade have fallen faster than expected. Foreign parent banks have rolled...

Low-income countries continue to face significant challenges in meeting their vast development needs while maintaining a sustainable debt position, even after many of these countries have benefited from substantial debt relief. These challenges are further exacerbated by changes in the financial...

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the banking system of the Russian Federation is under increasing strain, and private sector credit is contracting. The authorities’ response to the crisis has been swift and substantial, driven by concerns that weaknesses in the banking...