Facing climate change, seasonal forecasts, and weather warnings are increasingly important to warn the public of the risk of extreme climate conditions. However, being confronted with inaccurate forecast systems may undermine individuals' responsiveness in the long run. Using an online...

Most theories of risky choice postulate that a decision maker maximizes the expectation of a Bernoulli (or utility or similar) function. We tour 60 years of empirical search and conclude that no such functions have yet been found that are useful for out-of-sample prediction. Nor do we find...

Most theories of risky choice postulate that a decision maker maximizes the expectation of a Bernoulli (or utility or similar) function. We tour 60 years of empirical search and conclude that no such functions have yet been found that are useful for out-of-sample prediction. Nor do we find...

Most theories of risky choice postulate that a decision maker maximizes the expectationof a Bernoulli (or utility or similar) function. We tour 60 years of empirical search and concludethat no such functions have yet been found that are useful for out-of-sample prediction. Nor dowe find...

This paper illustrates the use of dual/adaptive control methods to compare passive and active adaptive management decisions in the context of an ecosystem with a threshold effect. Using discrete-time dynamic programming techniques, we model optimal phosphorus loadings under both uncertainty...

The internet has made it easier for customers to find and buy a wide variety of products. This may lead to a "long tail" effect as more customers buy low-volume products. However, the internet has also made it easier for customers to find out which products are most popular. This could lead to a...

A fundamental question in pharmaceutical marketing management is: How does the effectiveness of detailing change when additional information on drugs is revealed via patients' experiences during the product lifecycle? To address this question, we develop a model of detailing and prescribing...

The St Petersburg paradox could be used as an extreme demonstration of the utility function cardinalisation in case of stochastic utility. In this article we reassume the von Neumann and Mongernstern explanation to this paradox based on the risk aversion expressed by the strict concavity of the...