Forecasting crude oil prices is crucial for every individual and even the entire country. Previous studies have encountered difficulties in forecasting highly nonlinear crude oil prices, especially when conflicts, wars, and other irregular events occur. In light of this, this study proposes a...

This paper presents the theoretical foundations and dynamic properties of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model designed for quantitative policy analysis and counterfactual exercises. The approach of the paper can be summarized as follows. First, we present the model’s...

This paper analyses the concentration in the insurance sector and the impact of the market structure (distribution of market shares) and the number of insurance companies on the level of concentration (and competition) in the insurance sector in Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Metohija) in the...

In this study, we explore the geographic variation in health-care spending and its driving factors in China, using a nationwide and claim-level sample of inpatients ensured under the urban basic medical insurance schemes in 2010. We show geographic variation in health-care spending is...

Labor market dualism has caused a persistent wage gap between formal and informal workers in Indonesia. This study aimed to decompose the wage difference between formal and informal workers based on cohorts in Indonesia and further analyze the factors that influence this gap. This allowed us to...

We reformulate and decompose the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients into two components. We recommend the first component for detecting linear or monotonic relationships and the second for recognizing patterns of two parallel lines, providing robust versions to outliers. Thus, we...

We employ a time-varying risk price model that allows us to track the change in risk prices. We find that the output gap generates the time-varying market and momentum risk prices, but the exposures to the output gap have the opposite signs. In contrast, we do not observe that the output gap is...

Analyzing a large sample of gross fund-level and deal-level returns in Private Equity (PE), we study systematic differences in investment skills across PE firms and what investors can learn about the true skill of PE firms from past performance. We extend the framework of Korteweg and Sorensen...

Network theory suggests that supply shocks propagate downstream whereas demand shocks propagate upstream. I propose a method to decompose return innovations to supply and demand effects based on this observation. Specifically, If a focal firm return innovation affects its supplier's sales growth...