Bergholt, Drago; Canova, Fabio; Furlanetto, Francesco; … - 2024 - This version: April 8, 2024
autoregressive (VAR) models. We show that the deterministic component of the VAR tends to be imprecisely estimated, making the shock …-can massively shrink the uncertainty around the estimated deterministic component. Once this uncertainty is taken care of, demand …