Recent empirical studies in Equity markets show evidence that, while asset log-returns are largely uncorrelated, it is possible to predict with some accuracy their future sign. Such prediction is made over a given forecast horizon based solely on the observed sign of the cumulative log-return...

Investors pay a substantial premium to hedge against fluctuations in volatility—the variance risk premium (VRP). The asset-pricing literature has presented numerous models with jumps in economic fundamentals to reproduce the properties and the time variation of the VRP. This paper shows that...

In the paper the distribution of prime numbers and digits of π were presented as chaotic. The analysis was based on the amplitude spectrum plots of the prime number distribution and the amplitude spectrum plots of the π digit distribution. From the chaos of prime numbers a certain regularity...

This paper proposes a conceptualization of business cycle fluctuations in which the role of financial conditions and nonlinear dynamics are explicitly incorporated. We highlight the role of investment demand in driving economic fluctuations, consider its endogenous dynamic interactions with...

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) provides a method that enables the user to represent a quantity of interest (QoI) of a model's solution as a series expansion of uncertain model inputs, usually its parameters. Among the QoIs are the policy function, the second moments of observables, or the...