A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian parameters and filtering volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was...

An electronic portfolio, also known as an e-portfolio or digital portfolio, is a collection of electronic evidence assembled and managed by a user, usually on the Web. Such electronic evidence may include inputted text, electronic files such as Microsoft Word and Adobe PDF files, images,...

In this paper, we show that the calibration to an implied volatility surface and the pricing of contingent claims can be as simple in a jump-diffusion framework as in a diffusion framework. Indeed, after defining the jump densities as those of diffusions sampled at independent and exponentially...

This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, we first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models. Then, we...

In this paper we present a detailed synthesis of the development of the Human Genome Project (HGP) from the mid 1980s through 2000, in order to test our hypothesis of “social bubbles”, which claims that strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters weave a network of reinforcing...

We construct a weak solution to the stochastic functional differential equation Xt=x0+∫0tσ(Xs,Ms)dWs, where Mt=sup0≤s≤tXs. Using the excursion theory, we then solve explicitly the following problem: for a natural class of joint density functions μ(y,b), we specify σ(.,.), so that X is a...

Starting from an information process governed by a geometric Brownian motion we show that asset returns are predictable if the elasticity of the pricing kernel is not constant. Declining [Increasing] elasticity of the pricing kernel leads to mean reversion and negatively autocorrelated asset...