I use Bayesian VARs to forecast global temperatures anomalies until the end of the XXI century by exploiting their cointegration with the Joint Radiative Forcing (JRF) of the drivers of climate change. Under a ‘no change’ scenario, the most favorable median forecast predicts the land...

This paper aims to address the issue of semiparametric efficiency for cointegration rank testing in finite-order vector autoregressive models, where the innovation distribution is considered an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. Our asymptotic analysis relies on Le Cam's theory of limit...

This study explores the dynamic co-movement between oil and six stock markets (China, India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Canada) by using two types of wavelet analysis (wavelet multi-scale decomposition and wavelet coherence). The main empirical results are as follows: (1) Maximal overlap...

This research examines the linkages between trade, financial openness, and economic growth in China from 1992 to 2021, using Granger causality analysis in the ECM model to identify the trend of a causal relationship between the variables. The results confirm the validity of export-led growth and...