We study moderate deviations of some nonparametric estimators with ordinary smooth measurement errors. The moderate deviation principles for the kernel estimators of regression functions and conditional distribution functions are obtained.

This paper assesses empirically the links among a country's institutions and political environment, its implementation of IMF-supported programs, and macroeconomic performance in a sample of 197 programs approved between 1992 and 2002. We find that a stronger institutional and political...

Option prices provide valuable information on market expectations. This paper attempts to extract market expectations, as conveyed by an implied risk-neutral probability distribution, from option prices for the dollar-euro exchange rate. Returns' volatilities are inferred from observed and...

Graphing univariate distributions is central to both statistical graphics, in general, and StataÕs graphics, in particular. Now that Stata 8 is out, a review of official and user-written commands is timely. The emphasis here is on going beyond what is obviously and readily available, with...

The effects of unanticipated movements in global risk on nine emerging bond markets are investigated. The components of global risk are volatility, credit, and liquidity risks. Country and contagion risks are also studied individually. A historical decomposition of bond spreads is used to...

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...