We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers’ bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these...

We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers' bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these...

Traditionally, agricultural forecasts, whether for the coming year or several years into the future, have been based on assumptions of normal weather and trend crop yields. That weather is seldom normal and that yields seldom fit trends are well recognized. However, relatively little attention...