We consider the problem of assessing the effects of a treatment on duration outcomes using data from a randomized evaluation with noncompliance. For such settings, we derive nonparametric sharp bounds for average and quantile treatment effects addressing three pervasive problems simultaneously:...

We estimate business cycle regime switching logit models for G7 countries to determine the effect of duration of the current business cycle phase and of foreign recessions on the likelihood that expansions and recessions come to an end. With respect to expansions in a G7 country, we find that...

The cross-sectional distribution of completed lifetimes (DCL) is a new estimator defined and derived by Dixon (2012) in the general Taylor price model (GTE). DCL can be known as the cross-sectional weighted estimator summing to 1. It is a new statistics applying to describe the data. This paper...

We propose a multiplex interdependent durations model with incomplete information structure. The model considers an empirical stopping game involving multiple agents making timing decisions. We characterize the unique Bayesian Nash equilibrium of the stopping game and show that the...

In 2005, the unemployment compensation for long-term unemployed was reduced in Germany. We examine how this reform affected the transition probability to employment. Additionally, we inspect how this effect varies over unemployment duration. We estimate proportional hazard models using German...

We develop distress prediction models for non-financial small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using a dataset from eight European countries over the period 2000-2009. We examine idiosyncratic and systematic covariates and find that macro conditions and bankruptcy codes add predictive power...

Shared-frailty survival models specify that systematic unobserved determinants of duration outcomes are identical within groups of individuals. We consider random-effects likelihood-based statistical inference if the duration data are subject to left-truncation. Such inference with...