In some survival analysis, characterizing tail properties is of vital importance because of the huge economic cost associated with the large duration samples. In this paper, I study asymptotic properties in bivariate survival models with bivariate heterogeneity (frailty).I derive the appropriate...

This paper investigates whether the probability of a banking crisis depends on the time that has elapsed since the last banking crisis. More than two centuries of banking crises are considered, and a discrete-time duration model that is based on a cubic spline methodology is implemented. The...

This paper examines the role of education and family background on age at marriage, age at first birth, and age at labor market entry for young women in Senegal using a rich individual-level survey conducted in 2003. We use a multiple-equation framework that allows us to account for the...

This paper introduces the Markov-Switching Multifractal Duration (MSMD) model by adapting the MSM stochastic volatility model of Calvet and Fisher (2004) to the duration setting. Although the MSMD process is exponential ß-mixing as we show in the paper, it is capable of generating highly...

Unemployment insurance is usually found to show negative effects in the transition from unemployment to a new job. However, the extent to which workers' careers might improve or deteriorate as a result of the unemployment insurance system is not immediately clear. This paper addresses the...

This paper considers identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only...

This paper relates an individual’s social capital and the length of unemployment spells of the very same individual. For this purpose, we analyze several facets of an agent’s social activities as determinants of her social capital. Social activities lead to social interactions within...

Public programs often use statistical profiling to assess the risk that applicants will become long-term dependent on the program. The literature uses linear probability models and (Cox) proportional hazard models to predict duration outcomes. These either focus on one threshold duration or...

This paper examines how left-behind children influence migration duration in China. We first present a simple illustrative model that incorporates economic and non-economic motives to migration duration. Using individual data from a survey carried out in Wuwei county (Anhui province) in 2008, we...