This study evaluates forecasting performance of a large-scale factor model developed in Siliverstovs and Kholodilin (2012) in a genuine ex ante forecasting exercise. We perform our forecast of GDP growth in Switzerland in real time using real-time data vintages collected at weekly frequency....

In this paper a martingale approximation is used to derive the limiting distribution of simple positive eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix for a stationary linear process. The derived distribution can be used to study stability of the common factor representation based on the principal...

We consider an adaptive importance sampling approach to estimating the marginal likelihood, a quantity that is fundamental in Bayesian model comparison and Bayesian model averaging. This approach is motivated by the difficulty of obtaining an accurate estimate through existing algorithms that...

W opracowaniu przedstawiono syntetyczny wskaźnik aktywności gospodarczej w Polsce (barometr koniunktury), zbudowany na podstawie danych ankietowych Instytutu Rozwoju Gospodarczego SGH i Instytutu Transportu Samochodowego. Do oszacowania barometru koniunktury zastosowano podejście...

The paper studies regularised direct filter approach as a tool for high-dimensional filtering and real-time signal extraction. It is shown that the regularised filter is able to process high-dimensional data sets by controlling for effective degrees of freedom and that it is computationally...