We relax the strong rationality assumption for the agents in the paradigmatic Kyle model of price formation, thereby reconciling the framework of asymmetrically informed traders with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, where agents use inductive rather than deductive reasoning. Building on these...

To build a DSGE model, we introduce a mechanism that endogenously determines economic growth based on human capital accumulation theory. We also introduce a mechanism that endogenously determines fiscal expenditure by adding the price for public goods provided by the government. Additionally,...

In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast macroeconomic variables that combines two existing approaches to mixed-frequency data in DSGE models. The first existing approach estimates the DSGE model in a quarterly frequency and uses higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting...

Fiscal consolidation literature often neglects that there are economies with a sizable underground sector and that most of time it is accounted in GDP statistics. This produces non negligible effects on fiscal multipliers. This paper explores a fiscal consolidation plan calling for a downsizing...

This documentation concisely describes the dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model that the ifo Institute currently uses for simulations and business-cycle analysis. The model consists of three countries and contains a wide range of rigidities. The model is regularly estimated by quarterly...

How actively households participate in the financial markets, decides to a large extent, the synchronisation between the real and financial side of an economy. Digitalisation, by way of improving the accessibility to financial markets, can lead to an increase in this synchronisation. In this...

In this paper we highlight a new channel through which dollar fluctuations can become a self-fulfilling pro-cyclical force. We call this mechanism "Imperial Circle" as it makes the dollar the dominant macroeconomic variable in the context of the current international monetary system. At the core...