This paper investigates the role of informality in affecting the magnitude of the public expenditure multiplier in a panel of 142 countries, using the local projections method. We find a strong negative relationship between the degree of informality and the size of the multiplier. This result...

This paper aims to shed additional light on the existence of opportunistic and partisan political-business cycles in the Brazilian economy over the 1996-2016 period. To that end, it relies on two different approaches: (I) an Oaxaca model in the spirit of Blinder and Watson (2016); and (II) a...

Cryptocurrencies return cross-predictability and technological similarity yield information on risk propagation and market segmentation. To investigate these effects, we build a timevarying network for cryptocurrencies, based on the evolution of return cross-predictability and technological...

Following the financial crisis of 2009 there was an emergence of macroprudential policy tools, as well as a need to model the macroeconomy and the financial sector in a coherent framework. This paper develops and calibrates a small open economy DSGE model for Lithuania to shed some light on the...

Time-consistency is a key feature of many important policy problems, such as those relating to optimal fiscal policy and optimal monetary policy. It is also important for private-sector decision-making through mechanisms such as quasi-geometric discounting. These problems are generally solved...

In the spirit of the DSGE-VAR approach, I employed Temporal Difference Variational Auto-Encoder (TDVAE) proposed by Gregor et al. (2019) as a reduced timeseries model on which theoretical restrictions from a DSGE model are imposed. TDVAE is virtually a general-form stochastic state-space model...