Indonesia's food security is getting precarious. As COVID-19 spreads, supply chains are being significantly disrupted and is slowing down Indonesia's agricultural production and distribution. Indonesia's poor are being hit hard and are seeing rising food prices, loss of income and unemployment....

This paper develops a new way to quantify the effect of uncertainty and other higher-order moments. First, we estimate a nonlinear model using Bayesian methods with data on uncertainty, in addition to common macro time series. This key step allows us to decompose the exogenous and endogenous...