This paper presents a framework for understanding the limits that exist in optimal policy design in dynamic contexts. We consider the design of policies in the context of dynamic linear models. Fundamental design limits exist for policy rules in such environments in the sense that any policy...

We examine whether unregulated, private insurance markets efficiently provide insurance against reclassification risk (the risk of becoming a bad risk and facing higher premiums). To do so, we examine the ex-post risk type of individuals who drop their long-term care insurance contracts relative...

This paper uses play-by-play accounts of virtually all regular season National Football League games for 1998-2000 to analyze teams' choices on fourth down between trying for a first down and kicking. Dynamic programming is used to estimate the values of possessing the ball at different points...

Driven by increased complexity of dynamical systems, the solution of system of differential equations through numerical simulation in optimization problems has become computationally expensive. This paper provides a smart data driven mechanism to construct low dimensional surrogate models. These...

Risk and risk preferences belong to the key determinants of investment-based technology adoption in agriculture. We develop and apply a novel approach in which an inverse second order stochastic dominance approach is integrated into a stochastic dynamic farm-level model to quantify the effect of...

Using a multi-stage stochastic programming method, we suggest an optimal liability-driven investment(LDI) strategy for a closed defined-benefit pension fund including real assets. The objective is to jointly optimize contribution, funding ratio, and buyout cost, subject to a constraint on...

We study the inferences about labor adjustment costs obtained by the 'gap methodology' of Caballero and Engel [1993] and Caballero, Engel and Haltiwanger [1997]. In that approach, the policy function of a manufacturing plant is assumed to depend on the gap between a target and the current level...

This paper presents stochastic simulation results pertaining to the performance of nominal income targeting, here represented as a monetary policy rule that sets quarterly values of an interest rate instrument in response to deviations on existing studies of nominal income growth from a...