Industrialised economies are experiencing a decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates - a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. Population ageing is associated not only with longer periods of pension claims but also smaller cohorts eventually entering the...

Formal analysis plans limit false discoveries by registering and multiplicity adjusting statistical tests. As each registered test reduces power on other tests, researchers prune hypotheses based on prior knowledge, often by combining related indicators into evenly-weighted indices. We propose...

Since 2016, the Bank of Canada has conducted annual surveys to monitor awareness, adoption and usage of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (Henry et al. 2018, 2019a, 2019b). This report incorporates results from the 2019 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey and the November 2020 Cash Alternative Survey. We...

In recent years, the tendency of the number of financial institutions to include cryptocurrencies in their portfolios has accelerated. Cryptocurrencies are the first pure digital assets to be included by asset managers. Although they have some commonalities with more traditional assets, they...

This paper shows how to calculate consistent marginal effects on the original scale of the outcome variable in Stata after estimating a linear regression with a dependent variable that has been transformed by the inverse hyperbolic sine function. The method uses a nonparametric retransformation...

Assessing the state of the economy in real time is critical for policy-making, and understanding the risks to those assessments is equally important. Policy-makers are typically provided with point forecasts that contain insufficient information about risks. In contrast, predictive densities...

In the literature that estimates discrete games with incomplete information, researchers usually impose two assumptions. First, either the payoff function or the distribution of private information or both are restricted to follow some parametric functional forms. Second, players' behaviors are...

Evidence-based policy of global warming is best relying on a relevant sample of data. We choose a sample of annual data from 1959 to-date to provide some statistically robust stylized facts about the relationships between actual CO2 and temperature. Visually, there is a clear upward trend in...

In economics, it is common to use dimensioned variables, e.g. earnings (measured in dollars per year), as arguments in the logarithmic function. This is conceptually problematic because a logarithmic function can only take dimensionless quantities as its argument. One way to avoid this...

While empirical economics has made important strides over the past half century, there is a recent attack that threatens the foundations of the empirical approach in economics: external validity. Certain dogmatic arguments are not new, yet in some circles the generalizability question is beyond...