2009-2010 from the Household Budget Surveys for 2007-2010. We estimate the long-term ergodic distribution of households …

, while in the long term an ergodic distribution is the best predictor. Our stochastic model will thus be considered a local … approximation with no predictive ability for the far future. Using an estimate of an ergodic distribution of the predicted scalar …, containing information from both the local model and the ergodic distribution. For a small prediction horizon, if the local model …