The U.S. has been experiencing a slowdown in measured labor productivity growth since 2004. A number of commentators and researchers have suggested that this slowdown is at least in part illusory, because real output data have failed to capture the new and better products of the past decade. I...

When optimizing the Sharpe ratio over a k-dimensional parameter space the thus obtained in-sample Sharpe ratio tends to be higher than what will be captured out-of-sample. For two reasons: the estimated parameter will be skewed towards the noise in the in-sample data (noise fitting) and, second,...

Using data from 49 European regions covering 2005-2012, this paper finds that the estimated effect of cohort size on employment and unemployment outcomes is very sensitive to the age range of the sample. We argue that this is because the identification strategy commonly used in this literature...

Because of limitations in survey-based measures of household consumption, a growing literature uses an alternative measure of consumption commonly referred to as `imputed consumption'. This approach utilizes annual snapshots of household income and wealth from administrative tax registries to...

Periodic demand forecasts are the primary planning and coordination mechanism within organizations. Because most demand forecasts incorporate human judgment, they are subject to both unintentional error and intentional opportunistic bias. We examine whether a disaggregation of the forecast into...