In the pursuit of understanding collective intelligence, the Hong-Page Theorems have been presented as cornerstones of the interplay between diversity and ability. However, upon rigorous examination, there seem to be inherent flaws and misinterpretations within these theorems. Hélène...

We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in...

We provide the first revealed preference estimates of the benefits of routine weather forecasts. The benefits come from how people use advance information to reduce mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in...

Inference of predictive regression over multiple horizons is challenging because of over- lapping observations. We show that the size of the test based on the popular Hodrick standard errors can approach one if the horizon grows at a faster rate than the rotated norm of short-run predictability...

A rise in the aggregate markup can be decomposed into an effect coming from changes in firm-level markups and an effect coming from reallocation of economic activity toward high-markup firms. I show that such a decomposition is heavily influenced by measurement error of firm-level markups. When...

We study a nonlinear relationship between corporate investment and Tobin’s q in the cross-section. After correcting for nonseparable measurement error in q with the aid of repeated measurement, we find evidence of heterogeneity in the investment-q relation. The investment-q sensitivity is...

Measurement errors and structural breaks are important factors affecting the forecasting accurancy of volatility in the oil futures market. To capture these key points in one uniform forecasting model, we propose the MRS-HARQ-type model by simultaneously introducing the modification of...

Trade economists measure misreporting at the importer’s customs by comparing the export value reported at the exporter’s customs with the import value reported at the importer’s customs. The more significant the gap, the larger the extent of misreporting by the importer motivated by...

Probabilistic forecasts such as quantiles are essential inputs to decision-making under uncertainty. The most common type of forecasts often comes in the form of point forecasts, and it is therefore necessary for the decision maker to construct uncertainty measures around the obtained point...