We demonstrate that managers' “normal” operating decisions associated with large (positive or negative) net external financing activities are likely to lead to significant measurement errors in unexpected accruals. The problem occurs pervasively in samples drawn from different time periods,...

This paper contributes to the growing literature in macroeconomics and finance on expectation formation and information processing by analyzing the relationship between expectation formation at the individual level and the prediction of macroeconomic aggregates. Using information from business...

The "Lake Wobegon Effect'' describes the potential bias introduced into survey-based analyses of education issues, because students systematically over-report academic achievements such as grade-point average. While the use of official-records data negates this effect, many researchers can only...

Professional forecasters of economic data are remunerated based on accuracy and positive publicity generated for their firms. This remuneration structure incentivizes them to stick to the median forecast but also to make bold forecasts when they perceive to have superior private information. We...