A simple, dynamic selection procedure is proposed, based on conditional, expected profits using Markov chain models with memory. The method is easy to apply, only frequencies and mean values have to be calculated or estimated. The method is empirically illustrated using a data set from a...

We propose and test a new approach for modeling consumer heterogeneity in conjoint estimation based on convex optimization and statistical machine learning. We develop methods both for metric and choice data. Like hierarchical Bayes (HB), our methods shrink individual-level partworth estimates...

Polyhedral methods for choice-based conjoint analysis provide a means to adapt choice-based questions at the individual-respondent level and provide an alternative means to estimate partworths when there are relatively few questions per respondent, as in a Web-based questionnaire. However, these...

Normative models typically suggest that prices rise in periods of high demand and cost. However, in many markets, prices fall when demand or costs rise. This inconsistency occurs because the normative models assume that competitive intensity does not change with demand and cost conditions over...

We propose and test new adaptive question design and estimation algorithms for partial profile conjoint analysis. Polyhedral question design focuses questions to reduce a feasible set of parameters as rapidly as possible. Analytic center estimation uses a centrality criterion based on...

Studies estimating the Bass model and other macro-level diffusion models with an unknown ceiling feature three curious empirical regularities: (i) the estimated ceiling is often close to the cumulative number of adopters in the last observation period, (ii) the estimated coefficient of social...

In this paper we develop a general class of dynamic brand choice models, called (LB) models, which are consistent with the theory of random utility maximization of consumer choice behavior. The underlying random utility process is Markov, and the inter-temporal evolution of the...

Direct marketing (mail) is a growing area of marketing practice, yet the academic journals contain very little research on this topic. The most important issue for direct marketers is how to sample targets from a population for a direct mail campaign. Although some selection methods are...

In increasingly competitive and deregulated service environments, telecommunications service providers are interested in using advertising to stimulate usage. Measuring response in telephone usage to advertising presents difficulties because the effects are likely to be small, and the usage...

Customer base analysis is concerned with using the observed past purchase behavior of customers to understand their current and likely future purchase patterns. More specifically, as developed in Schmittlein et al. (1987), customer base analysis uses data on the frequency, timing, and dollar...