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evaluating probabilities 1 probability forecasts 1 scoring rules 1 skill scores 1
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Winkler, Robert L. 1
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Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules
Winkler, Robert L. - In: Management Science 40 (1994) 11, pp. 1395-1405
Proper scoring rules are over evaluation measures that reward accurate probabilities Specific rules encountered in the literature and used in practice are invariably symmetric in the sense that the expected score for a perfectly-calibrated probability assessor (or model generating probabilities)...
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