Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...

Using a customized survey and an information-provision experiment, we establish that loan officers' individual subjective expectations about inflation, GDP growth, and policy rates vary substantially within and across bank types and have a sizable causal effect on credit supply decisions....

Homeownership rates and holdings of housing wealth differ immensely across countries. Using micro data from five economies, we estimate a life-cycle model with illiquid housing in which households face a discrete-continuous choice between renting and owning a house. We use the model to decompose...

Children tend to choose the same occupations as their parents. We examine the implications of this tendency for talent allocation and intergenerational mobility. Using Swedish data on skills and personality traits, we estimate a general equilibrium Roy model with unequal occupational access...

How do students' earnings expectations differ by being the first in their family to attend university (FiF) and how do they affect field of study choice? We leverage unique survey and administrative data to document sizable gaps in expected earnings between FiF and non-FiF students. Our data can...

Professional forecasters' long-run inflation expectations overreact to news and exhibit persistent, predictable biases in forecast errors. A model incorporating overconfidence in private information and a persistent expectations bias-which generates persistent forecast errors across most...

When people choose how to communicate, they must consider whether their audience will be biased in interpreting their messages. This paper experimentally examines how politically-motivated reasoning affects information transmission. Senders are randomly matched with receivers whose political...